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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again emerge victorious, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.