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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Australian team host more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day before the team was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Squad Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test side being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a problem: a Test squad boasting a four-bowler lineup with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far change has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be coming round the mountain when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the balance experiences a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this new attack. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what new injuries the opening match may bring. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a pattern of initially small injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Future Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may witness the main four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm put back on, and this level is no place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that train approaching, coming around the bend, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they can't recall when.